具备稀缺IP及开发能力,成长潜力有望逐步兑现.pdf

2024-04-08 17:36
东吴证券国际经纪
陈睿彬
具备稀缺IP及开发能力,成长潜力有望逐步兑现.pdf

ShanghaiFilmCo.,Ltd.(601595)EquityResearch·CompanyResearch·Movie&TV1/7东吴证券(香港)请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]WithscarceIPanddevelopmentcapabilities,SHFilm'sgrowthpotentialgraduallymaterializesBuy(Initiation)Forecast&Valuation2021A2022A2023E2024E2025ERevenue(RMBmn)731.08368.35791.101,108.841,532.71Growth(YoY%)136.37%-49.62%114.77%40.16%38.23%Netprofit(RMBmn)21.87-334.80123.98259.44418.47Growth(YoY%)105.07%-1,630.74%137.03%109.27%61.30%EPS(RMB)0.05-0.750.280.580.93P/E(X)705.55-100.9448.2329.91Source:Wind,SoochowSecuritiesKeywords:#Economiesofscale,#Newproduct,technology,andclientsInvestmentThesis◼KeyPoints:SHFilmCo.'sstrategiclayoutcoversin-depthdevelopmentofIPbusiness,innovativeupgradesinthetheaterbusiness,andclosecollaborationwithSHFilmGroup.Thesefactorstogetherformasolidfoundationforthecompany'sfuturegrowth.◼WithIPandcinemabusinessadvancinghandinhand,SHFilmCo.developedjointlywithSHFilmGroup.Thecompany'sIPbusinessnotonlyrepresentsthesecondgrowthcurvebutalsodrivescinemaattendanceandmerchandisesales.SHFilmGroupisnotonlyamajorshareholderofSHFilmCo.butalsoprovidesconsiderablesupportforitsIPdevelopment.Conversely,theIPbusinessofSHFilmCo.alsobooststheeconomicbenefitsofthegroup'sculturalandtourismrealestate.◼Thecinemabusinessbuildsafoundation,withcinemarenovationandfilmmarketrecovery.Alpha:Shanghaicinemasundergorenovationandupgrades,employingdiversifiedmarketingstrategiestoeffectivelyincreaseboxofficeandattendancewhilereducingoperatingcostsandexpandingprofitmargins.Additionally,thecompany'sIPbusinesscontributestothedevelopmentofitsexistingcinemaandmerchandisebusiness,andcinemabusiness,inturn,amplifiestheinfluenceofIP.Beta:TheboxofficeperformanceduringNewYear'sDayandSpringFestivalin2024slightlyexceededexpectations.AsforthesummerandNationalDayboxoffice,thereleaseofblockbusterfilmsislikelytocontinuedrivingmarketgrowth;theproportionofShanghai'sfilmboxofficeisalsolikelytoincreasewiththeriseintheproportionofimportedfilms.◼IPbusinessislikelytobecomealeverforgroupresourceintegration.Marketconcernsaboutthecompany'sIPdevelopmentmainlyrevolvearoundthedifficultyincalculatingIPmonetizationpotential,theearlyreleaseyearofIP,andtheuncertaintyofIPrenovationeffects.However,webelievethatpreciseerrorsareinferiortovaguecorrectness.InsteadofcalculatingthevaluationofeachIP,weshouldpaymoreattentiontothecompany'sIPstrategyandtheimportantsignificanceofthisbusinessforthecinemabusinessandtheoverallstrategyofthegroup.Comparedtoshort-termchallenges,weshouldfocusonlong-termdevelopmentspace.TheprocessofrenovatingoldIPsandcultivatingnewIPsundoubtedlyfacesmanychallenges,butthroughmatrix-baseddevelopment,onlineandofflinelinkage,andmulti-channelpenetration,IPsarelikelytograduallyintegrateintopeople'sdailylives;AIisalsolikelytoreducethecostofIPdevelopmentandmonetizationwhileenhancingproductivity.ClassicanimatedIPsnotonlyhaveprofoundculturalconnotationsbutalsocontainenormouscommercialvalue,whichcanbeinnovatedandextendedthroughsequels,derivatives,cross-bordercooperation,etc.,bringingnewgrowthdr

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